Tourism under climate change: will slow travel supersede short breaks?

Climate change is affecting the tourism industry through many different mechanisms (Weaver 2011;Gössling, 2002, 2007; Berrittella et al. 2005; Hall and Higham 2005; Peeters 2005; Dubois and Ceron 2006; Becken and Hay 2007; Buckley 2008; UNWTO-UNEP-WMO 2008;Gössling et al. 2009). These include: environmental changes and human responses at tourist destinations and countries of origin (Koenig and Abegg 1997; Harrison et al. 1999; Maddison 2001; Elsasser and Buerki 2002; Lise and Tol 2002; Scott et al. 2006, 2008; Buckley 2008; Wolfsegger et al. 2008; Moore 2010; Eugenio-Martin and Campos-Soria 2010); mitigation and offset measures (Gössling et al. 2007;Tol 2007; Brouwer et al. 2008; Hall 2008; Broderick 2009; Ceron and Dubois 2009;Gössling 2009, 2010; Haites 2009; Peeters et al. 2009; Scott et al. 2010); and changes in travel patterns due to increased financial and social costs of travel (Oum et al. 1992, 1993; Sykes and Thomas 2006; Amelung et al. 2007; Mayor and Tol 2007; Hares et al. 2010; Nawijn and Peeters 2010). This contribution reports on direct interview approaches used to examine a question previously addressed only through economic modelling: namely, how tourists will respond to expected increases in the costs of longhaul travel associated with measures to mitigate climate change. It concludes that a change from short-break to slow-travel patterns in human mobility is at least a realistic possibility.